The new security and economic challenges facing East Asia

Part A: Japan's security dilemma 

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Ukraine coincided with Chinese President Xi Jiniping's visit to Moscow. One would think that Kishida is deliberately provoking Putin. 

Kishida, a former Foreign Minister is no warmonger. But tensions amongst nations are running high, and even actions considered benign can have deadly consequences. The bone of contention between Japan and Russia are the southern Kuril Islands (which Japan calls its Northern Territories). Japan accuses Russia of illegally occupying the islands; Russia naturally disputes this. 

But Russia has done more. In 2020, it stationed the S-300 VR air defense missile system on the island, with the view that Japan (assisted perhaps by the United States) might try to annex the islands. (In 2022, it added another system, the Bastion Coastal Missile Defense System to augment the S-300s). The actions reek of paranoia, for it is difficult to imagine what Japan would gain by attacking its nuclear-armed neighbor, and this is true even today a year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

China is thought to be Japan's main antagonist, with North Korea playing a secondary role. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, relations between Japan and Russia were strained because of the latter's militarization of the Kurils but there were no outward shows of aggression. But Putin's invasion in Ukraine reminded the Japanese of the that they would do well not to ignore the threat posed by a belligerent Russia. 

Realizing that it lives in a dangerous neighborhood, and that relying solely on the United States as a guarantor of its safety would be foolhardy, Kishida has doubled the military budget for the coming years. It now aims to increase military spending to 2% of GDP, for a total till 2027, of USD 320 billion. The sharp increase in military spending worried all its potential antagonists, including Russia. The latter may have thought that the Japanese were serious about challenging its claims to the Kurils militarily for it has begun to send nuclear armed bombers over the Sea of Japan. 

(to be continued)